#406 – May 4, 2025  

Finding Your Path

Hello, fellow strategists!  Here are some insights, frameworks and tools to help you make better strategic decisions … for this issue we were intrigued by ways to make better predictions, insights from a tireless female CEO, operational imperatives, how AI could become your marketing agency, and finding your path forward through creativity and curiosity.

Quick Takes

AI:  No Ad or Marketing Agency Needed? 

This past week Marketing Profs  highlighted a notable Verge interview with Meta CEO Mark  Zuckerberg. He described a future where advertisers will be able to simply share their marketing objectives and budgets with the platform, and AI will take care of the rest.

What is an Operational Imperative?

Operational imperatives (as described by Prof. Roger Martin) are essential, non-negotiable actions or activities that are so fundamental to success that they must be done and done well.

They are the “stupid not to do” actions, as he describes them, and are focused on keeping core functions running smoothly, rather than strategic choices which involve selecting between different viable options. Here are some examples of operational imperatives:

• Being prudent in fiscal decision-making
• Recruiting, retaining and developing your human resources.
• Safety of visitors (customers/clients) and staff.

• Ethical standards and complying with regulations.

A good test to tell the difference:  Does the opposite of the goal present a real choice (strategy) or something you obviously would never do (the goal is imperative).

Improve How You Make Predictions 

Making a prediction can be a tricky thing, especially during uncertain times. Recently ClearerThinking.org  reviewed 43 time-specific forecasts by Elon Musk involving Tesla, AI, Covid and SpaceX — only 16% were accurate. 

Forecasting, fortunately, is a learnable skill. Here are five tips Spencer Greenberg shared on the blog:

• Think in Probabilities: The best forecasters consider how confident they are in their estimates, or not, taking into account the evidence (which may be limited, weak, plentiful and/or strong).
• Break Problems Down: Split complex questions into more manageable components, which simplifies predicting and also helps isolate multiple factors affecting the outcome.
• Use Reference Classes: When faced with high uncertainty, make use of base rates for similar events and time periods. Even simple historical data, if it’s relevant, can significantly improve your accuracy when predicting.
• Seek Disconfirming Evidence: We unconsciously favour information that supports our existing beliefs and dismiss or warp information that contradicts them. Take time to consider why your prediction might be wrong, and seek evidence and arguments that contradict your current perspective.
• Keep Track of Your Predictions: If you’re not getting feedback, you’re not going to learn and improve quickly,

A good book for more on this is Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Telock and Dan Gardner. 

8020Info’s Tip Sheet:

Starting from Scratch and Finding Success 

Rose Blumkin, the founder of Nebraska Furniture Mart, started as a penniless  four-foot-ten refugee from Russia and built a billion-dollar empire. Her story is part of The Women of Berkshire Hathaway: Lessons from Warren Buffett’s Female CEOs and Directors.

Here are 10 hallmarks of her approach, highlighted by Shane Parrish on his Knowledge Project podcast: 

• A Taste for Saltwater: What separates exceptional people is their capacity to endure discomfort.
• High Agency: Most people see circumstances as fixed; high-agency people see them as variables. They refuse to accept artificial constraints.
• Bias Toward Action: While average performers wait for perfect conditions, exceptional ones create momentum by taking immediate action.
• Bounce, Don’t Break: Resilience isn’t about avoiding knockdowns; it’s about how you use them as launching pads.
• Dark Hours: Excellence develops when nobody’s watching. The public sees the outcome, but never the work.
• Your Reputation Is In the Room: Your reputation creates opportunities before you even enter the conversation. Reputation isn’t what you claim; rather, it’s the collective experience others have of you.
• Choose the Right Co-Pilot: The right partners don’t just add to your strengths; they compensate for your weaknesses while amplifying your impact.
• It Takes What It Takes: Every exceptional achievement has a non-negotiable price. Such results demand unreasonable commitment. 
• Focus Is a Superpower: Today our ability to pay attention is fractured —  so, strategically eliminate distractions and create a depth of knowledge that no comparator / competitor can match.
• Simple Scales, Fancy Fails. Rose’s entire business philosophy was succinct and fit on an index card: “Sell cheap, tell the truth, don’t cheat customers.” Complex businesses move slowly; simple ones have less friction and can scale with less overhead and fewer decision bottlenecks.

For Your Reading List: Blue Ocean Strategy

Blue Ocean Strategy by strategy professors W. Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne is a 10-year-old classic clients are looking at again as they seek new business models, strategic opportunities and ways to streamline their operations.

The book explains ways to create new spaces for your services that are either uncontested or where competition is irrelevant. Also known as “value innovation,” their approach combines differentiation and low cost at the same time, seeks to compete beyond the traditional boundaries defining your sector, and pursues new demand rather than simply toughing it out in an existing market. You might explore their “four-actions” framework — Eliminate, Reduce, Raise (standards), and Create.

Closing Thought:  Pathfinding

“Curiosity isn’t random; it’s a compass.”  — from FS Blog Brain Food